Sunday, November 30, 2008

G.M.'s Latest Great Green Hope is a Tall Order- Response (3)

Currently the United States is in the middle of an economic recession, the three major American car companies are failing, and global warming will soon become a huge problem. I think that if G.M. continues to make fuel-efficient or electric cars like the Volt they can help greatly with all three of these issues.

First of all, by manufacturing and selling these cars, G.M. will work its way out of debt and help the U.S. economy. G.M., as well as Chrysler and Ford, may need government aid to initially switch over to hybrid and plug-in electric cars, but I believe that they deserve a bailout as long as all the money is only spent manufacturing fuel-efficient cars.

Secondly, these cars will greatly reduce pollution generated by the United States. In several years I would expect a large number of wealthy people to switch to the electric cars, and eventually average Americans will also make the transition. I think it would be reasonable to expect, that in about twenty years, nearly all Americans will be driving a hybrid or an all electric vehicle. We will greatly reduce our total production of greenhouse gases, especially if other industrially developed countries such as in Europe and Japan (and maybe even China) switch over to hybrid-electric automobiles.

I predict that in the future these cars will become significantly cheaper as technology advances, production techniques improve, and these cars are manufactured in large numbers. Since the battery accounts for a large amount of the car's cost, and battery prices are expected to fall significantly, the total price will become thousands of dollars cheaper. The Volt will cost about $40,000 initially, but perhaps decrease to $30,000 as lithium-ion battery become less expensive.

G.M.'s Latest Great Green Hope is a Tall Order (3)

I found this article at http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/22/business/22volt.html?_r=2&emc=eta1.

This past week was the Los Angeles Auto Show where car companies displayed their newest car models. The Chevrolet Volt is a plug-in electric hybrid arriving in showrooms in late 2010 with the General Motor's survival depending on its success. In the past GM has lost a lot of money by trying to sell many fuel-inefficient cars that few people now buy. By selling fuel-efficient cars now, GM is trying to convince congress that they are worthy of financial help.

In advertisements that ran this week, the company said: “This is not just a car. It’s a vision of our future.” Another claimed that the vehicle would “completely reinvent the automotive industry.” The Volt is a big long-term bet. New vehicles typically cost $1 billion to develop, and the Volt requires new technology that probably inflated that price tag even more. G.M. says the car, which is scheduled to arrive in showrooms two years from now, will be able to travel 40 miles on a charge, but it will also have a small gas engine to extend the range to as much as 640 miles using both the battery and gasoline. The 1.4 liter, four-cylinder engine is intended to run a generator that will power the car and recharge the batteries once they are depleted.

The Volt is expected to cost about $40,000. Ron Pinelli, president of MotorIntelligence.com, an industry analysis firm, commented, “If you’re Joe the Commuter, you’re not going to spend $40,000 on an electric car. It’s insane.”

Other lawmakers questioned whether G.M. might run short of money for the Volt without federal assistance. But G.M.'s chief executive, Rick Wagoner, said in a television interview last week that G.M. was making sure it had money to keep developing the car.

Jon Lauckner, G.M. vice president for global program management, stated. “We’re moving from a model where the primary power plant is no longer an internal combustion engine. It’s an electric motor.” and also that “It’s a huge change in the whole paradigm of where cars have been.”

Many carmakers, including Mitsubishi, Nissan and BMW, have plug-ins under development. Toyota said last year that it was working on a plug-in hybrid vehicle that would be available by 2010, meaning it could conceivably beat the Volt. Toyota has not said whether it will sell the vehicle to the public or only to fleet customers.